WTI $96 strike at 8c is extreme value with 4-day tail
Y7 prices WTI crude settlement above $95.99 at just 8c with 100,000 IY and 4-day tau — against a backdrop of USO already at $123.75 (+3.7%) and the December $115 contract trading 35-36c (per highlights). The $96 strike 4 days out is pricing only 8% probability despite spot being in a confirmed breakout regime. R2 (gas above $4.20 shifting to taker at 36c) and R3 (Brent above $86.99 at 73c) both corroborate the directional bias. Entry at 8c, target 35-50c on continued geopolitical escalation.
WTI crude surging 3.7% (USO $123.75), Brent approaching $87 resistance (R3 at 73c), and gas prices near $4.12-$4.20 create a self-reinforcing commodity inflation loop. Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz risk are unpriced in year-end oil tails, while the regime shift on Brent (R3 moving from taker to neutral) signals short-term profit-taking but doesn't invalidate the structural bull case into year-end.
CatalystStrait of Hormuz transit data; Middle East escalation news; weekly EIA inventory
RiskSudden ceasefire or demand destruction data reverses crude; OPEC surprise output increase
WatchWTI crude settlement above $95.99 within 4 days · by 2026-07-29
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