SimpleFunctions

2026 Game of the Year

Stranger Than Heaven is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside 2026 Game of the Year.

Price history

1¢ current

0¢5¢
Jun 26, 2026Jun 26, 2026

Contract brief

If Stranger Than Heaven has won Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Stranger Than Heaven

Rank

#7 of 16

Leader

Grand Theft Auto VI 71¢

Range

1¢-71¢

Family volume

$16K

Identifier

KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-STR

Jun 26, 2026, 1:58 AM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

1¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 26, 2026, 1:58 AM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$33K

Family rank

#7 of 16

16 outcomes · 2026 Game of the Year

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

Family volume

$16K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 1¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
2¢1.2K
3¢534
4¢2
5¢2
100¢11K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Stranger Than Heaven has won Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 31, 2027

Identifier

KXGAMEAWARDS-2026-STR

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.