SimpleFunctions

2026 Grammy nominees for Best New Artist

SIENNA SPIRO is priced at 83¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 84¢ bid, 88¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside 2026 Grammy nominees for Best New Artist.

Price history

83¢ current

+3¢
75¢
Apr 27, 2026May 25, 2026

Contract brief

If SIENNA SPIRO has been nominated for Best New Artist at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

SIENNA SPIRO

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

SIENNA SPIRO 84¢

Range

1¢-84¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXGRAMMYNOMNAOTY-69-SIE

May 27, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 5m ago

Implied probability

83¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 5m ago

Bid

84¢

Ask

88¢

Spread

Reported volume

$4K

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · 2026 Grammy nominees for Best New Artist

Closes

Nov 1, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

84 / 88¢

Kalshi
4¢ spread
BidSize
83¢500
77¢100
60¢7
56¢1
AskSize
88¢8
90¢500
96¢303
97¢265
98¢1.1K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If SIENNA SPIRO has been nominated for Best New Artist at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 1, 2027

Identifier

KXGRAMMYNOMNAOTY-69-SIE

SF Signal
SF Index
183.12
Regime
maker

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

13.3%

IY (No)

366.2%

Adj IY

183%

CRI

5

Overround

3.8%

Regime

maker

Score

0.295

Observability

none

Event type

cultural

Full indicator table

13.3%
366.2%
Adj IY
183%
5
Overround
3.8%

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Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.