2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that 2027 Best Actress Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market on Renate Reinsve's 2027 Oscar nomination shows modest liquidity ($2,776.67 open interest) with a wide 8¢ spread, though the 51¢ price reflects genuine uncertainty about her nomination chances over the next 624 days.
Analysis
This market on Renate Reinsve's 2027 Oscar nomination shows modest liquidity ($2,776.67 open interest) with a wide 8¢ spread, though the 51¢ price reflects genuine uncertainty about her nomination chances over the next 624 days. The 78% risk-adjusted implied yield signals attractive compensation for the uncertainty, but the extreme 154% realized volatility and 1.78 vol ratio suggest this contract experiences sharp swings—likely driven by her film releases and awards season performance. With only $15.67 in 24-hour volume and a neutral regime, this remains a thin market where individual trades could move the price meaningfully.
Resolution rules
If Renate Reinsve has been nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMACTR-27-REN yes 100