2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that 2027 Best International Feature Film Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $4 in 24-hour volume and $655 open interest, making the 43¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $4 in 24-hour volume and $655 open interest, making the 43¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 80.8% implied yield on the Yes side is notably elevated relative to the 40% risk-adjusted yield, suggesting the market may be overpricing the probability given the long 624-day timeframe and minimal trading activity. The flat 7-day price action and tight 6¢ spread indicate low conviction among traders, so this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently priced prediction.
Resolution rules
If Fjord has been nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMINTERFILM-27-FJO yes 100