2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market on Wild Horse Nine's 2027 Oscar nomination shows a stark asymmetry in implied yields, with the "No" side offering 91.5% versus just 37.4% for "Yes," suggesting significant underpricing of the rejection scenario despite the 63¢ price.
Analysis
This market on Wild Horse Nine's 2027 Oscar nomination shows a stark asymmetry in implied yields, with the "No" side offering 91.5% versus just 37.4% for "Yes," suggesting significant underpricing of the rejection scenario despite the 63¢ price. Liquidity is notably thin at $2,515.72 open interest and just $13.84 in daily volume, creating execution risk for larger positions. With 624 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market has been range-bound at 61¢ for the past week, indicating limited new information flow on this relatively obscure film's Oscar prospects.
Resolution rules
If Wild Horse Nine has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-WIL yes 100