2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?
Prediction markets currently give a 73% probability that 2027 Best Picture Oscar nominations?. This contract trades at 73¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry favoring the No side, with the No implied yield at 108.7% dwarfing the Yes yield of 31.5%, suggesting strong skepticism about Project Hail Mary's nomination chances despite the 71¢ price.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry favoring the No side, with the No implied yield at 108.7% dwarfing the Yes yield of 31.5%, suggesting strong skepticism about Project Hail Mary's nomination chances despite the 71¢ price. The realized volatility of 258% and vol ratio of 4.81 indicate this contract experiences wild swings relative to market expectations, while the recent 4¢ price decline over seven days and modest $856 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that could amplify moves as we approach the late-2027 resolution window. With 624 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 2.0 per hour, this market remains highly sensitive to film industry developments, box office performance, and awards season sentiment shifts.
Also on polymarket at 12¢(Δ +61¢)
Resolution rules
If Project Hail Mary has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXOSCARNOMPIC-27-PRO yes 100