Before 2027 · Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before
Before 2027 is priced at 21¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 21¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 2 inside Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before.
Price history
21¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2027
Rank
#2 of 2
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 44¢
Range
21¢-44¢
Family volume
$305
Identifier
KXINSURRECTION-29-27
Jul 9, 2026, 7:08 PM UTC · 54m ago
Implied probability
Bid
21¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$297
Family rank
#2 of 2
2 outcomes · Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$305
Orderbook snapshot
21 / 22¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the President of the United States has invoked the Insurrection Act to deploy the United States military and/or the federalized National Guard within the United States before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXINSURRECTION-29-27
Event family
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency?: Before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$305
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 44¢
Current share
97%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.