Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency
Leader sits at 41% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 18%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 20, 2029
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
18¢
Before 2027
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
882 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency
Analysis
This market reflects the likelihood that President Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act at some point during his presidency. The Insurrection Act is a federal law that permits the president to deploy armed forces to suppress insurrections or rebellion. The 50% probability suggests significant uncertainty about whether Trump will use this executive authority. The current level likely reflects both the broad scope of the authorization (it could apply to various domestic security scenarios) and historical precedent—the act has been invoked rarely in modern times. Key factors include ongoing civil unrest levels, military leadership positions and their counsel to the president, legislative pressure or opposition regarding deployment authority, and Trump's governing approach toward domestic security challenges. The primary driver of resolution will be whether any qualifying domestic crisis occurs that prompts presidential consideration of the act.
- ›Historical frequency of Insurrection Act invocation in modern presidencies (last used in 1992 for LA riots)
- ›Current and projected levels of civil unrest or domestic security incidents through end of Trump's term
- ›Composition and public positions of military leadership regarding domestic deployment authority
- ›Congressional activity regarding restrictions or authorizations on presidential emergency powers
- ›Trump's documented statements and past executive actions on military deployment and domestic security
What moved the line
- Aug 19Before Jan 20, 2029↑3pp40→43¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (41% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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