UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q2 2026 above 4.10%
Above 4.10% is priced at 50¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 54¢ bid, 64¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q2 2026 be above.
Price history
50¢ current
+40¢Contract brief
If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 4.10%
Rank
#11 of 16
Leader
Above 3.10% 76¢
Range
1¢-76¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.10
Jun 26, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
54¢
Ask
64¢
Spread
10¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#11 of 16
16 outcomes · Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q2 2026 be above
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
54 / 64¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for June 30, 2026 (end of Q2 2026) is above 4.10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.10
Event family
Will UST Par Yield Curve (2Y) for Q2 2026 be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Above 3.10% 76¢
Current share
58%
Above 3.10%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.10
Above 3.20%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.20
Above 3.30%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.30
Above 3.00%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.00
Above 3.50%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.50
Above 3.60%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.60
Above 3.40%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.40
Above 3.80%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.80
Above 4.00%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.00
Above 3.90%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.90
Above 4.10%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.10
Above 3.70%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T3.70
Above 4.30%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.30
Above 4.40%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.40
Above 4.20%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.20
Above 4.50%
kalshi · KXUSTYLD-26JUN30-T4.50
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.