Belgium wins by more than 2.5 goals
Belgium wins by more than 2.5 goals is priced at 38¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 38¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside KXWCSPREAD-26JUN26NZLBEL.
Price history
38¢ current
+19¢Contract brief
If Belgium wins by more than 2.5 goals in the New Zealand vs Belgium professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 26, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Belgium wins by more than 2.5 goals
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Belgium wins by more than 1.5 goals 62¢
Range
1¢-62¢
Family volume
$62K
Identifier
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN26NZLBEL-BEL3
Jun 24, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
38¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN26NZLBEL
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
Family volume
$62K
Orderbook snapshot
38 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Belgium wins by more than 2.5 goals in the New Zealand vs Belgium professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 26, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
Identifier
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN26NZLBEL-BEL3
Event family
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN26NZLBEL.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$62K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Belgium wins by more than 1.5 goals 62¢
Current share
4%
Belgium wins by more than 1.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN26NZLBEL-BEL2
Belgium wins by more than 2.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN26NZLBEL-BEL3
New Zealand wins by more than 1.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN26NZLBEL-NZL2
New Zealand wins by more than 2.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN26NZLBEL-NZL3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.