Canelo Alvarez · Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Winner?: C
Canelo Alvarez is priced at 71¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 63¢ bid, 76¢ ask, 13¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Winner?: C.
Price history
71¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If Canelo Alvarez wins the Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli boxing match originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Canelo Alvarez
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Canelo Alvarez 63¢
Range
19¢-63¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXBOXING-26SEP12CALVARMBILLI-CALVAR
Jul 12, 2026, 1:09 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
63¢
Ask
76¢
Spread
13¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Winner?: C
Closes
Sep 27, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
63 / 76¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Canelo Alvarez wins the Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli boxing match originally scheduled for Sep 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 27, 2026
Identifier
KXBOXING-26SEP12CALVARMBILLI-CALVAR
Event family
Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Winner?: C.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Canelo Alvarez 63¢
Current share
70%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.