SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Mentions prediction markets — speech, tweet, headline triggers.

412 Kalshi-classified live questions across 412 Kalshi contracts, $85,060 of 24h volume. 163 sit in coin-flip territory. 139 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=mentions.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/mentions
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=mentions
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$85.1K-0%
min $52.6Kmax $810.2K
Breadth-29%-33.1pp
min -41%max 40%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 22:30 UTC
Aug 16past 7d · UTCAug 23 · 20:23

Live contracts

412

24h volume

$85.1K

# series in cat

0

curated GO series

Contested

40%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

1

Top mover

-30¢

KXVANCEMENTION-26AUG24-TIMB

Mentions — liquidity topography (top 283 of 412 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 0.2 → 1.6/h

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d1.60.90.2

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Mentions

Showing top 20 of 412

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center?: Iran24¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$2.8K
What will Joe Manchin say during Fox News: One Nation with Brian Kilmeade?: Trump56¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 806%Resid —$2.8K
What will Joe Manchin say during Fox News: One Nation with Brian Kilmeade?: Socialism / Socialist52¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 944%Resid —$2.5K
What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call?: Cosmos55¢
IY 230%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 300%Resid —$2.3K
What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center?: Houston58¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 470%Resid —$2.3K
What will JD Vance say during remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine?: America First13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$2.1K
What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center?: Election22¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$2.1K
What will JD Vance say during remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine?: Made in America / American Made20¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$2.0K
What will JD Vance say during remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine?: Shipbuilding22¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.9K
What will JD Vance say during remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine?: Working Class / Middle Class22¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.8K
What will Joe Manchin say during Fox News: One Nation with Brian Kilmeade?: Iran / Iranian32¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.7K
What will JD Vance say during remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine?: Oil / Gas / Gasoline33¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.6K
What will Joe Manchin say during Fox News: One Nation with Brian Kilmeade?: AI / Artificial Intelligence5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.5K
What will JD Vance say during remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine?: Iran / Iranian33¢
IY >999%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.4K
What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center?: Moon93¢
IY 140%Cliff 13Edge —RVol 70%Resid —$1.4K
What will JD Vance say during remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine?: Lobster22¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.4K
What will Joe Manchin say during Fox News: One Nation with Brian Kilmeade?: Democrat90¢
IY 276%Cliff 9Edge —RVol 229%Resid —$1.3K
What will Joe Manchin say during Fox News: One Nation with Brian Kilmeade?: Tariff16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.2K
What will JD Vance say during remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine?: Democrat95¢
IY 123%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.2K
What will NVIDIA Corporation say during their next earnings call?: TSMC48¢
IY 305%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$1.1K
412 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Mentions

From market_changes
6h agoKalshi
What will JD Vance say during remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine?: Timber / Lumber
7¢37→7 (-30)
open →
8h agoKalshi
What will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Oil
49¢76→49 (-27)
open →
8h agoKalshi
What will United Airlines Holdings, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Oil
76¢49→76 (+27)
open →
18h agoKalshi
What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center?: Election
13¢38→13 (-25)
open →
2h agoKalshi
What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Diamond
24¢46→24 (-22)
open →
2h agoKalshi
What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Diamond
46¢24→46 (+22)
open →
2h agoKalshi
What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Store Opening
4¢25→4 (-21)
open →
2h agoKalshi
What will Ulta Beauty, Inc. say during their next earnings call?: Store Opening
25¢4→25 (+21)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 Aug 2026 21:38:42 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=mentions →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=mentions →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →