What will Kevin Warsh say during remarks at the 2026 Economic Policy Symposium

US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle

Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.

Venezuela Oil Production, PDVSA 2026 Sanctions & Prediction Markets: What the Odds Are Really Pricing In

In-depth analysis of Venezuela oil production and PDVSA through 2026, U.S. sanctions and Chevron licenses, China/Russia oil-for-loans, infrastructure constraints, and how prediction markets are pricing future Venezuelan supply.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

US-Iran War and Oil: What Prediction Markets Are Actually Pricing

What prediction markets are pricing for the US-Iran conflict, oil prices, Hormuz disruption, and recession risk. Causal tree analysis with specific Kalshi and Polymarket contracts.

Trump Foreign Policy 2026: Latin America, Venezuela, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In

How Trump’s 2026 foreign policy toward Latin America and Venezuela is reshaping sanctions, migration, trade, and military risk—and what prediction markets are pricing in.

Global Oil Prices 2026: OPEC, Venezuela, Iran & Prediction Markets in Focus

Deep‑dive on global oil prices in 2026: how OPEC+ cuts, Saudi strategy, Venezuela and Iran sanctions, U.S. shale, and China’s demand shape Brent—and what prediction markets are pricing in.