Ernesto Mercado · Ernesto Mercado vs Emmanuel Tagoe Winner?: E
Ernesto Mercado is priced at 94¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 92¢ bid, 94¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Ernesto Mercado vs Emmanuel Tagoe Winner?: E.
Price history
94¢ current
+32¢Contract brief
If Ernesto Mercado wins the Ernesto Mercado vs Emmanuel Tagoe boxing match originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Ernesto Mercado
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Ernesto Mercado 92¢
Range
6¢-92¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
KXBOXING-26AUG15MERCADTAGOE-MERCAD
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
92¢
Ask
94¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$6K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Ernesto Mercado vs Emmanuel Tagoe Winner?: E
Closes
Aug 29, 2026
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
92 / 94¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ernesto Mercado wins the Ernesto Mercado vs Emmanuel Tagoe boxing match originally scheduled for Aug 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 29, 2026
Identifier
KXBOXING-26AUG15MERCADTAGOE-MERCAD
Event family
Ernesto Mercado vs Emmanuel Tagoe Winner?: E.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Ernesto Mercado 92¢
Current share
95%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.