Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET is priced at 51¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 50¢ bid, 51¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
51¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Outcome
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
0x9b078cd3...ddd0
Oct 7, 2026, 10:00 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
50¢
Ask
51¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Oct 8, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
50 / 51¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Oct 8, 2026
Identifier
0x9b078cd3…ddd0
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Ethereum Up or Down - October 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET 51¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 51% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.