Will Carlos Sainz finish ahead of Fernando Alonso in the 2026 Drivers' Championship for F1
F1: Will Carlos Sainz finish ahead of Fernando Alonso in the 2026 Drivers' Championship is priced at 61¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 52¢ bid, 70¢ ask, 18¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
61¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carlos Sainz is classified ahead of Fernando Alonso in the final official 2026 FIA Formula One World Drivers' Championship standings. This market will resolve to "No" if Fernando Alonso is classified ahead of Carlos Sainz. The final standings will be those published by the FIA at the conclusion of the 2026 season, including any tiebreakers applied under FIA rules and any penalties or adjustments reflected in that final classification. Both drivers will be ranked per that classification regardless of how many races either driver starts or completes. If the 2026 Formula One season is cancelled, postponed after December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no final classification is published within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the final classification does not rank both drivers, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the FIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
F1: Will Carlos Sainz finish ahead of Fernando Alonso in the 2026 Drivers' Championship
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
0xcf07498b...ca43
Sep 12, 2026, 12:42 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
52¢
Ask
70¢
Spread
18¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 6, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
52 / 70¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carlos Sainz is classified ahead of Fernando Alonso in the final official 2026 FIA Formula One World Drivers' Championship standings. This market will resolve to "No" if Fernando Alonso is classified ahead of Carlos Sainz. The final standings will be those published by the FIA at the conclusion of the 2026 season, including any tiebreakers applied under FIA rules and any penalties or adjustments reflected in that final classification. Both drivers will be ranked per that classification regardless of how many races either driver starts or completes. If the 2026 Formula One season is cancelled, postponed after December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no final classification is published within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the final classification does not rank both drivers, this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the FIA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 6, 2026
Identifier
0xcf07498b…ca43
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
F1: Will Carlos Sainz finish ahead of Fernando Alonso in the 2026 Drivers' Championship 61¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.