Who will win the 2026 F1 Championship?
Leader sits at 18% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
14¢
Will Republicans win the Hou
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$25.2M
liquid
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Republicans win the House in 2026
Will Republicans win the House in 2026?
CONTROLH-2026-R
Cluster 2
Will Democrats win the House in 2026
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?
CONTROLH-2026-D
Cluster 3
Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET
Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET?
KXBTC2026200-27JAN01-200000
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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