50+ bps increase · Fed Decision in July
50+ bps increase is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 5 inside Fed Decision in July?.
Price history
0¢ current
−50¢Contract brief
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Outcome
50+ bps increase
Rank
#5 of 5
Leader
No change 93¢
Range
0¢-93¢
Family volume
$6.5M
Identifier
0x2a28cc33...2971
May 24, 2026, 12:59 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
0¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$9K
Family rank
#5 of 5
5 outcomes · Fed Decision in July?
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Family volume
$6.5M
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 0¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Identifier
0x2a28cc33…2971
Event family
Fed Decision in July.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6.5M
Outcomes
5
Highest price
No change 93¢
Current share
12%
No change
polymarket · 0x8bf1c1536ecb1c08fe13c6b71e8ab1f58bf3461c4cb79f5f1679f869a06aef86
25 bps increase
polymarket · 0xb5c0abeecb5502e6e8d83155c27819174d8317af3c425c3afc5a8c45257a3793
25 bps decrease
polymarket · 0x4ede078cae84a5877ac32d7fb48811e5c23549a1904b7df06ff7935c6d79d831
50+ bps decrease
polymarket · 0x3d675f1c88099a57c12abca632cf926be1bf430125168321de06234e9930fe1a
50+ bps increase
polymarket · 0x2a28cc33492516116690a20d290f9922acbe0ed367ff52a6082154474c7f2971
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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