July Meeting · Fed rate cut by
July Meeting is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Fed rate cut by...?.
Price history
5¢ current
−8¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
July Meeting
Rank
#4 of 5
Leader
December Meeting 23¢
Range
1¢-23¢
Family volume
$914K
Identifier
0x02507350...072e
Jun 7, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#4 of 5
5 outcomes · Fed rate cut by...?
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
Family volume
$914K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 17, 2026
Identifier
0x02507350…072e
Event family
Fed rate cut by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$914K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
December Meeting 23¢
Current share
12%
December Meeting
polymarket · 0xc60022fe066abd6f96c375adb09f38d92c4931f09c10b805354581b4e5465e93
October Meeting
polymarket · 0x4092815fea8f91e60586882d45fa2f61bfca8a36d595f47fdea9eec5d2893025
September Meeting
polymarket · 0xb4022c0b2718eca7ad27195f2d48f06527fa000269d188e1d3001ff8bbc16956
July Meeting
polymarket · 0x02507350fc2b81c3af36c659a805adbda9b0a81e63a27b29cb273cdd7dbc072e
June Meeting
polymarket · 0x4d162a40c3e3f458b0e0017485d7f9e6ead0cdd0573e38b26e0d5420525ccfa4
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.