France wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half
France wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals is priced at 42¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 39¢ bid, 42¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXWC1HSPREAD-26JUN22FRAIRQ.
Price history
42¢ current
+40¢Contract brief
If France win by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half of the France vs Iraq professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
France wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
France wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals 38¢
Range
1¢-38¢
Family volume
$22K
Identifier
KXWC1HSPREAD-26JUN22FRAIRQ-FRA2
Jun 21, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
39¢
Ask
42¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$11K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXWC1HSPREAD-26JUN22FRAIRQ
Closes
Jul 6, 2026
Family volume
$22K
Orderbook snapshot
39 / 42¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If France win by more than 1.5 goals in the 1st Half of the France vs Iraq professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 6, 2026
Identifier
KXWC1HSPREAD-26JUN22FRAIRQ-FRA2
Event family
KXWC1HSPREAD-26JUN22FRAIRQ.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$22K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
France wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals 38¢
Current share
50%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.