Brazil wins by over 1.5 goals in the 1st Half

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract resolves true if Brazil scores more than 1.5 goals in the first half of an upcoming match, currently priced at 4% probability. First-half goal markets typically reflect the compressed timeframe and defensive setup patterns that teams employ early in matches. The low probability suggests Brazil is either facing a strong defensive opponent, considered unlikely to break through early, or playing a team that historically maintains compact defending in opening periods. Market pricing across similar contracts shows Mexico at 11% as a relative outlier, while most other countries cluster near 3-4%, indicating these are generally rare events. The main drivers of this specific probability are Brazil's attacking form heading into the match, opponent defensive capabilities, and historical first-half scoring patterns in comparable fixtures. Resolution depends on the scheduled match date and final scoreline during the first 45 minutes.

• ›First-half goals require early breakthrough, typically 20-30% less frequent than full-match scoring across major competitions
• ›Brazil's recent form in opening periods and opponent's defensive organization will directly influence execution opportunities
• ›Mexico contract trading at 11% (nearly 3x this level) suggests significant variance in perceived first-half scoring likelihood by opponent
• ›Historical data on this specific matchup and both teams' typical first-half tactical approaches would show baseline probability
• ›Team sheet composition, including attacking lineup availability and defensive personnel, affects early-phase dynamic potential

What moved the line

• Jun 17Portugal wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals↑10pp11→21¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Bosnia and Herzegovina wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals↑9pp8→17¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Netherlands wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals↑8pp9→17¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 18Morocco wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals↑8pp10→18¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 17England wins the 1H by more than 1.5 goals↑7pp12→19¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds