Germany wins by more than 2.5 goals
Germany wins by more than 2.5 goals is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25ECUGER.
Price history
13¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If Germany wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Ecuador vs Germany professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Germany wins by more than 2.5 goals
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Germany wins by more than 1.5 goals 26¢
Range
2¢-26¢
Family volume
$63K
Identifier
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25ECUGER-GER3
Jun 23, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$20K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25ECUGER
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Family volume
$63K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Germany wins by more than 2.5 goals in the Ecuador vs Germany professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Identifier
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25ECUGER-GER3
Event family
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25ECUGER.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$63K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Germany wins by more than 1.5 goals 26¢
Current share
31%
Germany wins by more than 1.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25ECUGER-GER2
Germany wins by more than 2.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25ECUGER-GER3
Ecuador wins by more than 1.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25ECUGER-ECU2
Ecuador wins by more than 2.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25ECUGER-ECU3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.