Mexico wins by over 1.5 goals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$289K
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
19 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
USA wins by more than
Cluster 2
Portugal wins by more than
Cluster 3
Germany wins by more than
Cluster 4
Japan wins by more than
Cluster 5
Netherlands wins by more than 2.5 goals
Netherlands wins by more than 2.5 goals?: Netherlands wins by more than 2.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25TUNNED-NED3
Cluster 6
Turkiye wins by more than 1.5 goals
Turkiye wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Turkiye wins by more than 1.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25TURUSA-TUR2
Cluster 7
Mexico wins by more than 1.5 goals
Mexico wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Mexico wins by more than 1.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN24CZEMEX-MEX2
Cluster 8
Algeria wins by more than 1.5 goals
Algeria wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Algeria wins by more than 1.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN22JORDZA-DZA2
Cluster 9
Canada wins by more than 2.5 goals
Canada wins by more than 2.5 goals?: Canada wins by more than 2.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN24SUICAN-CAN3
Cluster 10
Brazil wins by more than 1.5 goals
Brazil wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Brazil wins by more than 1.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN24SCOBRA-BRA2
Cluster 11
England wins by more than 1.5 goals
England wins by more than 1.5 goals?: England wins by more than 1.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN23ENGGHA-ENG2
Cluster 12
Sweden wins by more than 1.5 goals
Sweden wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Sweden wins by more than 1.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25JPNSWE-SWE2
Cluster 13
Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals
Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Spain wins by more than 1.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN26URUESP-ESP2
Cluster 14
Colombia wins by more than 1.5 goals
Colombia wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Colombia wins by more than 1.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN23COLCOD-COL2
Cluster 15
Morocco wins by more than 2.5 goals
Morocco wins by more than 2.5 goals?: Morocco wins by more than 2.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN24MARHTI-MAR3
Cluster 16
Egypt wins by more than 1.5 goals
Egypt wins by more than 1.5 goals?: Egypt wins by more than 1.5 goals
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN26EGYIRI-EGY2
Analysis
This market reflects a 29% probability that Mexico wins a match by more than 1.5 goals—meaning they win 2-0, 3-1, or by any wider margin. The probability sits between England (45%) and Egypt (24%) on similar contracts, suggesting moderate confidence in Mexico's offensive capability. Volume concentration on this contract ($1,786 in 24-hour trades) indicates active interest. The outcome depends primarily on Mexico's goal-scoring efficiency against their opponent's defensive performance. Historical matchup data, current team form, and injury status of key players would be primary drivers of this probability moving higher or lower. The specific matchup date and opponent identity remain critical unknowns affecting confidence in this outcome.
- ›Mexico's recent goal differential and conversion rate in comparable competition matches
- ›Opponent's defensive record and goals-against average in similar fixtures
- ›Starting lineup availability—particularly Mexico's primary attacking players and their opponent's key defenders
- ›Historical head-to-head goal margin distribution between these specific teams
- ›Recent form trend: goals scored per match by Mexico over the past 5-10 games versus opponent's goals allowed
What moved the line
- Jun 21Netherlands wins by more than 2.5 goals↑13pp28→41¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15Netherlands wins by more than 2.5 goals↑7pp17→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Germany wins by more than 1.5 goals↓7pp33→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18England wins by more than 1.5 goals↑7pp50→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20USA wins by more than 1.5 goals↑6pp17→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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