Guadalajara to win Guadalajara vs Toluca
Guadalajara is priced at 44¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 43¢ bid, 44¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Guadalajara vs Toluca Winner.
Price history
44¢ current
+17¢Contract brief
If Guadalajara wins the Guadalajara vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Guadalajara
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Guadalajara 43¢
Range
25¢-43¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXLIGAMXGAME-26JUL18CDGTOL-CDG
Jul 12, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
43¢
Ask
44¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$735
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Guadalajara vs Toluca Winner
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
43 / 44¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Guadalajara wins the Guadalajara vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Identifier
KXLIGAMXGAME-26JUL18CDGTOL-CDG
Event family
Guadalajara vs Toluca Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Guadalajara 43¢
Current share
48%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 44% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.