Toluca to win Guadalajara vs Toluca
Toluca is priced at 35¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 29¢ bid, 35¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside Guadalajara vs Toluca Winner.
Price history
35¢ current
+19¢Contract brief
If Toluca wins the Guadalajara vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Toluca
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Guadalajara 42¢
Range
24¢-42¢
Family volume
$355
Identifier
KXLIGAMXGAME-26JUL18CDGTOL-TOL
Jul 11, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
29¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$146
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · Guadalajara vs Toluca Winner
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Family volume
$355
Orderbook snapshot
29 / 35¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Toluca wins the Guadalajara vs Toluca professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 18, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Identifier
KXLIGAMXGAME-26JUL18CDGTOL-TOL
Event family
Guadalajara vs Toluca Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$355
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Guadalajara 42¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.