Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026 is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
7¢ current
Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Outcome
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$516K
Identifier
0xcd57f3ad...c170
Jul 21, 2026, 11:25 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$29K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$516K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xcd57f3ad…c170
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$516K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026 7¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
cultural
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.