At least 30 minutes · How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least
At least 30 minutes is priced at 97¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 88¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 10¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 10 inside How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least.
Price history
97¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If Ariana Grande's album 'petal' is at least 30 minutes, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 30 minutes
Rank
#2 of 10
Leader
At least 25 minutes 90¢
Range
1¢-90¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-30
Jun 23, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
88¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
10¢
Reported volume
$264
Family rank
#2 of 10
10 outcomes · How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
88 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Ariana Grande's album 'petal' is at least 30 minutes, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-30
Event family
How long will Ariana Grande's album 'petal' be?: At least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
10
Highest price
At least 25 minutes 90¢
Current share
—
At least 25 minutes
kalshi · KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-25
At least 30 minutes
kalshi · KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-30
At least 35 minutes
kalshi · KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-35
At least 40 minutes
kalshi · KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-40
At least 45 minutes
kalshi · KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-45
At least 50 minutes
kalshi · KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-50
At least 55 minutes
kalshi · KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-55
At least 60 minutes
kalshi · KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-60
At least 65 minutes
kalshi · KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-65
At least 70 minutes
kalshi · KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC30-PET-70
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 97% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.