SimpleFunctions

An Extended Look be for How long will Grand Theft Auto VI

At least 75 minutes is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 7 inside How long will Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look be?: At least.

Price history

4¢ current

6¢
0¢10¢
Aug 6, 2026Aug 7, 2026

Contract brief

If Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look is at least 75 minutes, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

At least 75 minutes

Rank

#6 of 7

Leader

At least 10 minutes 92¢

Range

4¢-92¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXVIDEOLENGTH-26AUG27-GTA-75

Aug 8, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 29m ago

Implied probability

4¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 8, 2026, 6:08 PM UTC · 29m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$200

Family rank

#6 of 7

7 outcomes · How long will Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look be?: At least

Closes

Aug 28, 2026

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 9¢

Kalshi
9¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
9¢200
33¢47
35¢500
47¢955
48¢2.0K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Grand Theft Auto VI: An Extended Look is at least 75 minutes, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 28, 2026

Identifier

KXVIDEOLENGTH-26AUG27-GTA-75

SF Signal
SF Index
22565.69
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

45131.4%

IY (No)

78.4%

Adj IY

22566%

CRI

24

Overround

1.9%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

45131.4%
78.4%
Adj IY
22566%
24
Overround
1.9%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.