SimpleFunctions
KalshiFeb 1, 2027268 days left

How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026?

This contract is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 15¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 3¢ spread.

Implied probability

25¢
$8K volume
$5K liquidity

Event outcomes

7

Family volume

$0

Best sibling

At least 10 10¢

Ticker

KXMUSKCHALLENGERS-26-5

Market snapshot

At least 5 in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026?. The displayed quote is 25¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $8K. In the How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026?: At least family, this outcome ranks #1 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC.

Outcome

At least 5

Family rank

#1 of 7

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

25¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Feb 1, 2027

Reported volume

$8K

Family context

7 outcomes · How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026?: At least

Quote range

2¢-15¢

Family leader

At least 5 15¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 5m ago

Venue identifier: KXMUSKCHALLENGERS-26-5. Family volume: .

Price history

25¢ current

+7¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 16, 2026May 8, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

15 / 18¢

Kalshi
3¢ spread
BidSize
15¢270
13¢1.0K
3¢1.0K
3¢50
3¢27
AskSize
18¢3
19¢77
20¢2
21¢2
22¢2

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Elon Musk supports at least 5 non-incumbents who win Congressional seats in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 1, 2027

Identifier

KXMUSKCHALLENGERS-26-5

Event family

How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026?: At least.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$0

Outcomes

7

Highest price

At least 5 15¢

Current share

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

770.6%

IY (No)

24.0%

Adj IY

308%

CRI

6

Overround

-0.6%

LAS

0.20

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

770.6%
24.0%
Adj IY
308%
6
Overround
-0.6%
LAS
0.20

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