How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026
Leader sits at 4% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 5
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
At least 100
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
223 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Elon-backed challengers will win seats in Congress in 2026
Analysis
This contract estimates the likelihood that candidates explicitly backed by Elon Musk will win at least one U.S. House or Senate seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The 16% probability reflects skepticism about whether Musk's endorsements and campaign support will translate into electoral victories, though the exact threshold for "Musk-backed" remains subject to interpretation. The primary drivers are the strength of these candidates' local positioning, whether Musk maintains visible engagement in specific races, and whether his endorsement proves a net asset or liability in individual districts. The key resolution point will be the November 2026 election results, when winning percentages for endorsed candidates in competitive races will become clear.
- ›Track record of Musk's prior political endorsements and their success rate in 2022-2024 elections
- ›Definition and scope of "Elon-backed" — whether this includes direct financial support, public endorsements, or both
- ›Composition of candidate pool — geographic distribution, incumbency status, and competitiveness of their districts
- ›Net favorability of Musk association in target swing districts and whether it mobilizes or alienates voters
- ›Turnout patterns and broader midterm environment in 2026 relative to presidential election years
What moved the line
- Jun 20At least 5↓12pp16→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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