How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?
Prediction markets currently give a 36% probability that How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10?. This contract trades at 36¢ on Kalshi, closing July 10, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2,971 open interest, and the 36-cent price implies an unusually low probability (36%) that 10 freshmen will occupy the entire top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft—a historically rare outcome.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2,971 open interest, and the 36-cent price implies an unusually low probability (36%) that 10 freshmen will occupy the entire top 10 of the 2026 NBA Draft—a historically rare outcome. The asymmetric implied yields (882.7% for Yes vs. 214.1% for No) suggest significant mispricing or that the Yes side is heavily undervalued relative to the No side's risk-reward profile. With 84 days to expiry and a modest 6-cent spread, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the lack of trading activity may be masking genuine uncertainty about draft composition.
Resolution rules
If at least 10 freshmen are drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-10 yes 100