Above 16 · How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?: Above 1
Above 16 is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 57¢ bid, 61¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 8 inside How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?: Above 1.
Price history
61¢ current
+45¢Contract brief
If all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have Above 16 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 16
Rank
#6 of 8
Leader
Above 11 98¢
Range
20¢-98¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-16
Jul 12, 2026, 1:38 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
57¢
Ask
61¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$63
Family rank
#6 of 8
8 outcomes · How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?: Above 1
Closes
Aug 7, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
57 / 61¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have Above 16 launches in Jul 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 7, 2026
Identifier
KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-16
Event family
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026?: Above 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above 11 98¢
Current share
4%
Above 11
kalshi · KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-11
Above 12
kalshi · KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-12
Above 13
kalshi · KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-13
Above 14
kalshi · KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-14
Above 15
kalshi · KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-15
Above 16
kalshi · KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-16
Above 17
kalshi · KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-17
Above 18
kalshi · KXLAUNCHCOUNTM-JUL-18
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.