How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

The market is pricing in a 91% probability that U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers will exceed 11 launches during July 2026. This represents a high confidence that the industry will maintain or accelerate launch activity during the month. The probability reflects historical launch cadence data and scheduled missions known to operators, though the range of outcomes—from 12 to 16+ launches—shows material uncertainty about whether providers will hit higher thresholds. Launch schedules depend on weather delays, technical readiness, and customer demand timing. The resolution occurs on August 1, 2026, when actual July launch count becomes known. Between now and then, schedule announcements or delays from major providers like SpaceX, Axiom, and Relativity would be the primary drivers shifting market pricing.

• ›Historical monthly launch rates for U.S. commercial operators and whether they sustain or increase from recent monthly averages
• ›Publicly announced launch schedules for July 2026 from major providers and any schedule slip notifications issued before month-end
• ›Weather and technical readiness patterns typical for Florida, Texas, and California launch sites during summer months
• ›The definition of 'U.S.-licensed commercial launch provider' and whether suborbital or orbital flights count toward the total
• ›Actual launch attempt and success/failure resolution data released publicly or via FAA tracking after July 31, 2026

What moved the line

• Jul 9Above 12↓61pp93→32¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Above 12↑54pp32→86¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Above 15↑44pp27→71¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 11Above 16↑30pp29→59¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Above 14↑25pp64→89¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds