Above 18 · How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above
Above 18 is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 8 inside How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above.
Price history
28¢ current
+16¢Contract brief
If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 18 launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 18
Rank
#6 of 8
Leader
Above 13 97¢
Range
4¢-97¢
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-18
Jul 12, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
23¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$904
Family rank
#6 of 8
8 outcomes · How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above
Closes
Aug 7, 2026
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
23 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have Above 18 launches in July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 7, 2026
Identifier
KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-18
Event family
How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026?: Above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Above 13 97¢
Current share
82%
Above 13
kalshi · KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-13
Above 14
kalshi · KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-14
Above 15
kalshi · KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-15
Above 16
kalshi · KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-16
Above 17
kalshi · KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-17
Above 18
kalshi · KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-18
Above 19
kalshi · KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-19
Above 20
kalshi · KXLAUNCHES-26JUL-20
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.