How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial operators combined have in July 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

The market indicates 87% confidence that U.S.-licensed commercial operators will conduct more than 13 orbital launches during July 2026. This reflects expectations about near-term launch cadence from providers including SpaceX, Blue Origin, and others operating under U.S. licenses. The probability is driven by historical launch rates and current manifest visibility, weighted against potential delays from technical issues, weather, or regulatory holds. Resolution depends on final July 2026 launch counts, which will be confirmed through official FAA records and company announcements. The wide spread in contract prices—from 5¢ for above-20 launches to 87¢ for above-13—suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether activity clusters at 14-16 launches or extends above 19, hinging on how many operators execute their scheduled missions without slip.

• ›Historical U.S. commercial launch cadence in recent months, which sets baseline expectations for July activity
• ›Current published manifests and scheduled launch windows for SpaceX, Blue Origin, Relativity, and other licensed operators during July 2026
• ›Weather patterns, technical delays, and regulatory clearance timelines that could compress or expand the achievable launch window
• ›The gap between 13 and 19 launches in contract pricing suggests market uncertainty about mid-range outcomes (14-18 launches)
• ›Whether operators maintain aggressive scheduling or absorb delays from prior months into the July window

What moved the line

• Jul 9Above 14↑22pp68→90¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Above 16↑20pp35→55¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Above 17↑19pp22→41¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Above 15↑13pp72→85¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 9Above 13↑13pp75→88¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds