SimpleFunctions

How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Aug 2026

2 is priced at 13¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Aug 2026.

Price history

13¢ current

2¢
10¢20¢30¢
Aug 1, 2026Aug 9, 2026

Contract brief

If Donald Trump makes exactly 2 trips to Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

2

Rank

#2 of 4

Leader

3 63¢

Range

1¢-63¢

Family volume

$129

Identifier

KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-2

Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 1m ago

Implied probability

13¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 9, 2026, 12:08 PM UTC · 1m ago

Bid

14¢

Ask

19¢

Spread

24h volume

$74

Family rank

#2 of 4

4 outcomes · How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Aug 2026

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Family volume

$129

Orderbook snapshot

14 / 19¢

Kalshi
5¢ spread
BidSize
14¢20
13¢100
11¢200
6¢416
4¢30
AskSize
19¢5
20¢271
21¢400
23¢300
34¢90

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Donald Trump makes exactly 2 trips to Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Aug 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Aug 31, 2026

Identifier

KXNJGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-2

SF Signal
SF Index
5078.01
Regime
neutral

Event family

How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Bedminster in Aug 2026.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$129

Outcomes

4

Highest price

3 63¢

Current share

57%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

10156.0%

IY (No)

269.1%

Adj IY

5078%

CRI

6

Overround

-0.2%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

10156.0%
269.1%
Adj IY
5078%
6
Overround
-0.2%

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Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.