Japan wins by more than 1.5 goals
Japan wins by more than 1.5 goals is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 27¢ bid, 28¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25JPNSWE.
Price history
28¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
If Japan wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Japan vs Sweden professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Japan wins by more than 1.5 goals
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
Japan wins by more than 1.5 goals 27¢
Range
2¢-27¢
Family volume
$19K
Identifier
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25JPNSWE-JPN2
Jun 23, 2026, 9:38 AM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
27¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$11K
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25JPNSWE
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Family volume
$19K
Orderbook snapshot
27 / 28¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Japan wins by more than 1.5 goals in the Japan vs Sweden professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jun 25, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
Identifier
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25JPNSWE-JPN2
Event family
KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25JPNSWE.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$19K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Japan wins by more than 1.5 goals 27¢
Current share
57%
Japan wins by more than 1.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25JPNSWE-JPN2
Japan wins by more than 2.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25JPNSWE-JPN3
Sweden wins by more than 1.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25JPNSWE-SWE2
Sweden wins by more than 2.5 goals
kalshi · KXWCSPREAD-26JUN25JPNSWE-SWE3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Prediction market liquidity: why depth matters more than volume for serious traders
Why orderbook depth matters more than volume for prediction market traders. Real Kalshi examples, liquidity scoring framework, and how to avoid slippage.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 28% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.