1.24 to 1.30 · Jul 2026 temperature increase?: 1
1.24 to 1.30 is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 11¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside Jul 2026 temperature increase?: 1.
Price history
14¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jul 2026 is between 1.24-1.30, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
1.24 to 1.30
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
1.17 to 1.23 37¢
Range
1¢-37¢
Family volume
$182
Identifier
KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUL-B1.270
Jul 20, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
3¢
Reported volume
$403
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · Jul 2026 temperature increase?: 1
Closes
Aug 16, 2026
Family volume
$182
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Land Ocean-Temperature Index for Jul 2026 is between 1.24-1.30, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 16, 2026
Identifier
KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUL-B1.270
Event family
Jul 2026 temperature increase?: 1.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$182
Outcomes
6
Highest price
1.17 to 1.23 37¢
Current share
0%
1.17 to 1.23
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUL-B1.200
1.10 to 1.16
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUL-B1.130
1.24 to 1.30
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUL-B1.270
1.04 to 1.09
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUL-B1.065
1.30001 or above
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUL-T1.30
1.02999 or below
kalshi · KXHMONTHRANGE-26JUL-T1.03
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.