Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026 is priced at 31¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 29¢ bid, 32¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
31¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$541K
Identifier
0xced0cb87...9e1f
Jun 26, 2026, 8:43 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
29¢
Ask
32¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$131
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$541K
Orderbook snapshot
29 / 32¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0xced0cb87…9e1f
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$541K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026 31¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 31% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.