SimpleFunctions

Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027

Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027 is priced at 51¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 93¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.

Price history

51¢ current

50¢55¢
Aug 27, 2026Aug 27, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the IPO must result in the company's shares being listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading. Filing an S-1 or announcing IPO intentions alone does not qualify. If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Kraken and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Kraken; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027

Rank

Standalone

Leader

Range

Family volume

$63

Identifier

0xcee7afac...1874

Aug 27, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

51¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 27, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

97¢

Spread

93¢

Reported volume

$63

Family rank

Standalone

Standalone contract

Closes

Jul 1, 2027

Family volume

$63

Orderbook snapshot

4 / 97¢

Polymarket
93¢ spread
BidSize
100¢24
4¢6
3¢55
2¢271
AskSize
97¢11
98¢49
99¢63

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken shares are listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To qualify, the IPO must result in the company's shares being listed on a public securities exchange and open for trading. Filing an S-1 or announcing IPO intentions alone does not qualify. If Kraken is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official filings and announcements from Kraken and the relevant securities exchange on which the shares are listed, including SEC filings (e.g., Form S-1, Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmations, and official press releases from Kraken; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jul 1, 2027

Identifier

0xcee7afac…1874

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

This market.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$63

Outcomes

1

Highest price

Kraken IPO by June 30, 2027 51¢

Current share

100%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.409

Observability

medium

Event type

financial

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.