SimpleFunctions

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · KXPRESNOMD-28

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 18¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXPRESNOMD-28.

Price history

19¢ current

+5¢
10¢20¢
Jul 25, 2026Aug 24, 2026

Contract brief

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18¢

Range

1¢-18¢

Family volume

$520K

Identifier

KXPRESNOMD-28-AOC

Aug 24, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 11m ago

Implied probability

19¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 24, 2026, 8:08 PM UTC · 11m ago

Bid

18¢

Ask

19¢

Spread

24h volume

$131K

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · KXPRESNOMD-28

Closes

Nov 7, 2028

Family volume

$520K

Orderbook snapshot

18 / 19¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
18¢10.0K
17¢7.8K
16¢27K
15¢41K
14¢8.7K
AskSize
19¢3.8K
20¢67K
21¢59
22¢58K
23¢11K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Democratic party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 7, 2028

Identifier

KXPRESNOMD-28-AOC

SF Signal
SF Index
206.35
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

206.4%

IY (No)

9.9%

Adj IY

206%

CRI

5

RV

577%

VR

4.60

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

206.4%
9.9%
Adj IY
206%
5
RV
577%
VR
4.60
IAR
0.5/h
Overround
-0.2%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.