SimpleFunctions
9 source contracts·Kalshi 9·refreshed just now·Closes Nov 7, 2028 · 822d

Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 9 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

8%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

8%

9 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$136K

9 contracts

Closes

Nov 7, 2028

822 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 17% (28 days, 28 points)Aggregate: 17% on 2026-08-08
Aggregate of 9 contracts · 28d

Bracket families

9 clusters across 9 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

1 contract$26K

Cluster 2

Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

1 contract$25K

Cluster 3

Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

1 contract$18K

Cluster 4

Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

1 contract$17K

Cluster 5

Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

1 contract$16K

Cluster 6

Will J.B. Pritzker be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

1 contract$14K

Cluster 7

Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

1 contract$10K

Cluster 8

Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

1 contract$6K

Cluster 9

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028

1 contract$3K

Analysis

This probability represents a 8% estimated chance that Texas State Representative James Talarico becomes the Democratic nominee for the 2028 presidential election. The assessment reflects that while Talarico has served in the Texas legislature and maintains a progressive profile, he remains substantially less recognized nationally than leading contenders like Kamala Harris (9¢), Jon Ossoff (14¢), and Gavin Newsom (16¢). The probability could increase if Talarico gains significant national media attention, secures major endorsements, or successfully builds a campaign infrastructure. Conversely, it could decline if other Democratic figures consolidate support or if Talarico faces competitive pressures within his own state. The Democratic nomination process will crystallize through 2027 primary contests, early state campaigns, and party coalition-building, with Iowa caucuses and early primaries likely serving as key uncertainty-resolving events in late 2027 and early 2028.

  • Talarico's national profile remains minimal compared to other candidates—he represents a single Texas state legislative district with limited prior statewide or federal office experience
  • Trading volume and contract pricing across comparable candidates (Harris 9¢, Ossoff 14¢, Newsom 16¢) suggest market participants view him as a significantly longer-odds nominee
  • No documented major national political organization, Super PAC backing, or significant fundraising base has been publicly associated with a Talarico presidential campaign
  • Primary results from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina between January-March 2028 will serve as the primary catalyst to validate or invalidate this probability estimate
  • Talarico would need to demonstrate measurable movement in early-state polling or secure endorsements from established Democratic party figures to shift market pricing materially upward

Recently closed in election 2026

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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