Exactly 0 cuts · Will the Fed cut rates
Exactly 0 cuts is priced at 86¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 86¢ bid, 86¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside Will the Fed cut rates.
Price history
86¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Exactly 0 cuts
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Exactly 0 cuts 86¢
Range
1¢-86¢
Family volume
$11K
Identifier
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Aug 10, 2026, 12:08 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
86¢
Ask
86¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the Fed cut rates
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$11K
Orderbook snapshot
86 / 86¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Event family
Will the Fed cut rates.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$11K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Exactly 0 cuts 86¢
Current share
29%
Exactly 0 cuts
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Exactly 1 cut
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
Exactly 2 cuts
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
Exactly 3 cuts
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T3
Exactly 14 cuts
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T14
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.577
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 86% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.