Will the Fed cut rates 1 times?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will the Fed cut rates 1 times?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 24¢ price implies only a 24% probability of exactly one Fed rate cut over the next 259 days, which appears to price in either a hold or multiple cuts as more likely outcomes—a notably bearish view on singular action.
Analysis
The 24¢ price implies only a 24% probability of exactly one Fed rate cut over the next 259 days, which appears to price in either a hold or multiple cuts as more likely outcomes—a notably bearish view on singular action. The extreme 471% implied yield on the Yes side combined with modest $1.28k daily volume and $117k open interest suggests thin liquidity that could amplify price swings, particularly given the elevated 263% realized volatility and 1.18 vol ratio indicating elevated uncertainty. The flat 7-day price action (24¢ to 23¢) and neutral regime score suggest the market is currently stable, though the 3/10 cliff risk index warrants monitoring as we approach key Fed decision points.
Resolution rules
If the Fed cuts 1 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1 yes 100