Exactly 1 cut · Will the Fed cut rates
Exactly 1 cut is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside Will the Fed cut rates.
Price history
17¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the Fed cuts 1 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Exactly 1 cut
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Exactly 0 cuts 77¢
Range
1¢-77¢
Family volume
$25K
Identifier
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
Jun 25, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$7K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · Will the Fed cut rates
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$25K
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 18¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Fed cuts 1 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
Event family
Will the Fed cut rates.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$25K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Exactly 0 cuts 77¢
Current share
26%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.438
Observability
high
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.