Exactly 0 cuts · Will the Fed cut rates
Exactly 0 cuts is priced at 76¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 76¢ bid, 77¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Will the Fed cut rates.
Price history
76¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Exactly 0 cuts
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
Exactly 0 cuts 76¢
Range
1¢-76¢
Family volume
$20K
Identifier
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Jul 9, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
76¢
Ask
77¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$8K
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · Will the Fed cut rates
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$20K
Orderbook snapshot
76 / 77¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Event family
Will the Fed cut rates.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Exactly 0 cuts 76¢
Current share
38%
Exactly 0 cuts
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T0
Exactly 1 cut
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T1
Exactly 2 cuts
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T2
Exactly 3 cuts
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T3
Exactly 4 cuts
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T4
Exactly 5 cuts
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T5
Exactly 8 cuts
kalshi · KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC31-T8
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.562
Observability
medium
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
Read 76% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.