Will Donald Trump visit China before May 15, 2026
Will Donald Trump visit China before May 15, 2026 is priced at 100¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 100¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
100¢ current
+38¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of China before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Donald Trump visit China before May 15, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$687K
Identifier
KXTRUMPCHINA-26-MAY15
May 24, 2026, 2:21 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
100¢
Reported volume
$687K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
May 13, 2026
Family volume
$687K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of China before May 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 13, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPCHINA-26-MAY15
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$687K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Donald Trump visit China before May 15, 2026 100¢
Current share
100%
Will Donald Trump visit China before May 15, 2026
kalshi · KXTRUMPCHINA-26-MAY15
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.