First Goalscorer for Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal: First Goalscorer: Lamine Yamal is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 12¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP.
Price history
12¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If Lamine Yamal records the first goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the France vs Spain professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Lamine Yamal: First Goalscorer: Lamine Yamal
Rank
#3 of 6
Leader
Kylian Mbappe: First Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe 20¢
Range
5¢-20¢
Family volume
$112K
Identifier
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPLYAMAL10
Jul 13, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
12¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$14K
Family rank
#3 of 6
6 outcomes · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP
Closes
Jul 28, 2026
Family volume
$112K
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 12¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Lamine Yamal records the first goal during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the France vs Spain professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 28, 2026
Identifier
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPLYAMAL10
Event family
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$112K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Kylian Mbappe: First Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe 20¢
Current share
13%
Kylian Mbappe: First Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe
kalshi · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAKMBAPP10
Mikel Oyarzabal: First Goalscorer: Mikel Oyarzabal
kalshi · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPMOYARZ10
Ousmane Dembele: First Goalscorer: Ousmane Dembele
kalshi · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAODEMBE10
Lamine Yamal: First Goalscorer: Lamine Yamal
kalshi · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPLYAMAL10
Michael Olise: First Goalscorer: Michael Olise
kalshi · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAMOLISE17
No Goal: First Goalscorer: No Goal
kalshi · KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-NOGOAL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.