Lionel Messi
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$138K
10 contracts
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
16 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
No Goal: First Goalscorer: No Goal
Cluster 2
Kylian Mbappe: First Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe
Kylian Mbappe: First Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAKMBAPP10
Cluster 3
Ousmane Dembele: First Goalscorer: Ousmane Dembele
Ousmane Dembele: First Goalscorer: Ousmane Dembele
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAODEMBE10
Cluster 4
Lamine Yamal: First Goalscorer: Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal: First Goalscorer: Lamine Yamal
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPLYAMAL10
Cluster 5
Mikel Oyarzabal: First Goalscorer: Mikel Oyarzabal
Mikel Oyarzabal: First Goalscorer: Mikel Oyarzabal
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-ESPMOYARZ10
Cluster 6
Michael Olise: First Goalscorer: Michael Olise
Michael Olise: First Goalscorer: Michael Olise
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL14FRAESP-FRAMOLISE17
Cluster 7
Jude Bellingham: First Goalscorer: Jude Bellingham
Jude Bellingham: First Goalscorer: Jude Bellingham
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGJBELLI5
Cluster 8
Lionel Messi: First Goalscorer: Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi: First Goalscorer: Lionel Messi
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGLMESSI10
Cluster 9
Harry Kane: First Goalscorer: Harry Kane
Harry Kane: First Goalscorer: Harry Kane
KXWCFIRSTGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGHKANE9
Analysis
This 15% probability reflects the chance that Messi scores the first goal in a specific upcoming match. The current price sits between comparable odds for Harry Kane (18%) and well below Erling Haaland (13%), positioning Messi as a mid-tier contender. The primary factors influencing this level are Messi's recent playing time and form—whether he's currently in the squad and match fit—and the specific opponent's defensive profile. Recent trading volume of $2,458 suggests moderate interest. Resolution will occur once the designated match concludes and the first goalscorer is recorded. The probability may shift significantly closer to the match based on team lineup announcements, which typically occur 1-2 hours before kickoff and would clarify whether Messi starts or appears on the bench.
- ›Messi's recent appearances and minutes played in his current competition
- ›Whether Messi is confirmed in the starting lineup versus on the bench for the specific match
- ›The defending team's recent defensive record and vulnerability to first-goal scoring
- ›Messi's conversion rate on first-half shooting opportunities in recent matches
- ›Starting formation and tactical setup that determines Messi's positioning and shooting opportunities
What moved the line
- Jul 12First Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe↑11pp10→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 12First Goalscorer: No Goal↓10pp14→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11First Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe↑7pp3→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 12First Goalscorer: Lamine Yamal↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 13First Goalscorer: No Goal↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 13, 2026last 90% · 0d
- Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 0d
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.29% on Jul 13, 2026last 97% · 0d
- Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 92% · 0d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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