3+ goals for Lionel Messi
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals: Lionel Messi: 3+ is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #15 of 16 inside KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG.
Price history
2¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If Lionel Messi records at least 3 goals during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the England vs Argentina professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals: Lionel Messi: 3+
Rank
#15 of 16
Leader
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals: Lionel Messi: 1+ 40¢
Range
1¢-40¢
Family volume
$544K
Identifier
KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGLMESSI10-3
Jul 13, 2026, 5:03 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#15 of 16
16 outcomes · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Family volume
$544K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Lionel Messi records at least 3 goals during the entire game (regulation, stoppage and any extra time periods) of the England vs Argentina professional FIFA World Cup soccer game originally scheduled for Jul 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 29, 2026
Identifier
KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGLMESSI10-3
Event family
KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$544K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals: Lionel Messi: 1+ 40¢
Current share
1%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals: Lionel Messi: 1+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGLMESSI10-1
Harry Kane: 1+ goals: Harry Kane: 1+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGHKANE9-1
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals: Jude Bellingham: 1+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGJBELLI5-1
Julian Alvarez: 1+ goals: Julian Alvarez: 1+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGJALVAR19-1
Lautaro Martinez: 1+ goals: Lautaro Martinez: 1+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGLMARTI10-1
Enzo Fernandez: 1+ goals: Enzo Fernandez: 1+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGEFERNA8-1
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals: Lionel Messi: 2+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGLMESSI10-2
Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals: Alexis Mac Allister: 1+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGAMACA10-1
Harry Kane: 2+ goals: Harry Kane: 2+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGHKANE9-2
Declan Rice: 1+ goals: Declan Rice: 1+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGDRICE41-1
Elliot Anderson: 1+ goals: Elliot Anderson: 1+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGEANDER8-1
Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals: Jude Bellingham: 2+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGJBELLI5-2
Julian Alvarez: 2+ goals: Julian Alvarez: 2+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGJALVAR19-2
Lautaro Martinez: 2+ goals: Lautaro Martinez: 2+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGLMARTI10-2
Harry Kane: 3+ goals: Harry Kane: 3+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ENGHKANE9-3
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals: Lionel Messi: 3+
kalshi · KXWCGOAL-26JUL15ENGARG-ARGLMESSI10-3
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.